As the sun sets on 2023, you’ll recall 16 questions asked at Harderblog almost one year ago:

1. Will any updated data surface to corroborate our recent polling that 99.3% of lumber traders have no idea what you’re talking about when you mention culture wars?
   If the culture war or culture conflict refers to the conflict between traditionalist or conservative values and social democracy, progressive or social liberal values in the Western world, as well as other countries, 99.3% of lumber traders are mostly asking: “What has this got to do with the price of 2×4?”
2. Will a rebounding ‘covid-reopened’ China account for two-thirds of global growth in 2023?
   According to reports in The Financial Times, despite expectations for a blowout rebound, China’s share has fallen in 2023, hitting 17%. That puts China on pace for a two-year drop of 1.4 percentage points, a slide not seen since the 1960’s and 1970’s, when Mao Zedong presided over a weak economy. With its current slide, China will account for none of the growth of global GDP over the past two years, estimated at a total increase of $113 trillion.
3. Will Russia’s behaviour as a rogue state be the greatest global risk this year?
   While Time named Russia’s behaviour as a rogue state to be the greatest global risk in 2023, implications of Hamas-Israeli War in October merely added to burdensome list of global risk concerns by year end.
4. In consideration of what some analysts call BC forest industry overreach, will 2023 be considered a “tipping point” in context of a fiber supply crisis?
   According to year-end reporting, BC Forestry Minister Bruce Ralston admits the industry is “going through change that has been a bit rocky.” And while admitting that fiber supply continues to be a hot button issue, he notes the province is “taking many steps” to put the industry on a sustainable path for the future. “The annual allowable cut is coming down just because of the fires and the mountain pine beetle and most of the beetle wood has been logged in the last 10 years or so.” We may well look back on 2023 as the “tipping point”.
5. Will wood pellets still be considered “sustainable biomass” by the end of 2023?
   We were told ahead of the November COP28 climate talks there is clear evidence wood pellets are increasingly produced from logged whole trees from primary forests in B.C. Whether or not wood pellets are still considered “sustainable biomass” remains an open question.
6. Will global catastrophic weather-related events trigger a heightened sense of urgency around action on the climate emergency?
   According to the World Resources Institute State of Climate Action 2023, “This year’s State of Climate Action finds that progress made in closing the global gap in climate action remains woefully inadequate – 41 of 42 indicators assessed are not on track to achieve their 2030 targets.” Data as recently as end of November indicate that 2023 is on track to be the hottest year humans have ever experienced, and by a wide margin according to most data sets. September, for instance, was warmer by a larger amount than any month measured by NOAA in 174 years.
7. What sporting event will deliver up the greatest upset in result this year?
   If you’re a cricket fan, it was Afghanistan defeating defending champions England by 69 runs at the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023. If you’re a Canadian Football League fan, it was the Montreal Alouettes last minute heroics in upsetting Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win the Grey Cup. Beyond that, just too many upsets to mention.
8. Will the rise in eco-friendly materials in construction find new relevance and impact in the lumber industry?
   Yes. According to new reporting at Medium.com “As the demand for sustainable building materials continues to rise, the Reclaimed Lumber Market is experiencing significant growth. The market is driven by a combination of environmental consciousness, the desire for distinctive and high-quality products, and the increasing emphasis on green construction practices. Additionally, as the construction industry evolves towards greater sustainability, the Reclaimed Lumber Market is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of eco-conscious building materials.”
9. Will AI find newly-perceived value in construction in ways that impact the lumber industry?
   Yes, AI is impacting all industry. It will add value in ways that we can only imagine at this point. We’re told that the virtual assistants and chatbots, computer programs, are providing information and learning to recognize contextual patterns to provide better responses over time. These programs simulate written or spoken conversation in lieu of human interaction. Its development is bound to lead to enhanced productivity even for lumber traders working from home offices.
10. Will advancements in robotics find surprise new application for lumber trading floors in search of stepped up efficiencies and motivational strategies in enhancing customer services?
    As far as we know stepped up efficiencies and motivational strategies for lumber trading floors are not significantly being served at this point by robots clamoring for new-found relevance in 2023. Any bots delivering non-stop coffee or blood mopping from trading floors are still in their planning stage.
11. Euro softwood lumber export volumes to the US accelerated in 2022, while BC exports to the US declined (CIBC Capital Markets). Will this trend continue in 2023?
    Updated 2-21-24: “Euro imports slipped to 1.97 billion board feet in 2023, down from the record 2.03 bbf shipped in 2022. Prior to 2023, European shipments to the U.S. had increased eight consecutive years from a 2014 trough of 126 million board feet. Shipments jumped 27% in 2022 compared to 2021.” (Source: Random Lengths International)
12. Will we experience a recession in 2023?
    The jury is still arguing over whether Canada and/or the US is in recession. All reports suggest we are “skirting” recession on both sides of the border at year end.
13. Will there be a dramatic new breakthrough in the medical field that captures more attention than NASA’s planned space missions?
    For space buffs, the moon was “the hottest ticket in town” in 2023. It included India’s successful landing there, while NASA’s news of launching the most powerful rocket ever is precursor to prepping four moon walkers for upcoming planned landings. Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactica started taking tourists on short rides to space in 2023. Many medical breakthroughs including new drugs to slow Alzheimers and new ultrasound for cancer therapies giving new hope to men with prostate cancer, are among 2023 medical breakthroughs, even as they may not have captured the same press as moonwalkers in training. Lumber traders confirm there were no lumber prices aboard rockets to the moon in 2023, and there were no breakthrough drugs to heal pains of overpriced lumber inventory.
14. Will new polling reveal that people are becoming bored of raging on social media?
    At least one response at Forbes noted: “Are we stupid? Not really. We’re human. Social media apps know that we’re all trying to seek attention and we’re all information seekers. We want to be informed and we want to inform. The problem is that this digital treadmill keeps running forever, and there’s never an end in sight. That’s really the whole point of social media, to convince us there’s a goal and at the same time never allowing us to reach the goal. It’s perfectly alluring.” So expect the ‘raging’ to continue, even as people become increasingly bored with it.
15. Will the January 1st imposition of a two-year ban preventing foreigners’ buying into Canada’s housing market result in more affordable housing for Canadians?
    No. According to Canada’s housing and infrastructure minister, Sean Fraser, the ban on non-Canadians buying homes is offering weak evidence of alleviating the affordable housing crisis in Canada. “It is a wrongheaded approach to addressing the crisis.”
16. Will most lumber industry associates we know maintain their lumber trader’s characteristic cheerful disposition by year end?
    The Pew Research Center reports that 51% of American workers are “highly satisfied” with their jobs. Meanwhile, in Canada, the November primary indicator was up a tad from October’s 47% satisfaction. So, of course, it’s evident that overall lumber traders have maintained their cheerful disposition among the 20% of America’s workforce who indicate “passionate satisfaction” about their jobs in 2023.