Market Ripe for Picking?

Is the lumber market ripe for picking? Who knows. Unfortunately this week’s picking readiness signalled by my backyard apple tree’s bumper crop offers little guidance. Unlike apples dropping from a tree, falling lumber prices can’t be sure of where ground level support intervenes.

Google offered up helpful information that prompted this week’s timing to invite friendly volunteers from the Vancouver Fruit Tree Project Society to come set up their step ladders:

Wait for a couple of apples to fall from the tree. Apple trees naturally drop their apples when they are ripe in order to self-seed and reproduce. Watch for an apple or two to drop from the tree to determine if they are ready to pick.

When your apples are ripe, they should be fairly easy to pick from the tree with a simple upward twist of the apple. Try to avoid picking an apple by pulling the fruit straight down and tugging.

If otherwise healthy fruits begin to fall off the tree, they are probably beginning to get a little too ripe and should probably be harvested as soon as possible.

Now if only Google could offer up unambiguous harvest-time signals for lumber inventory managers.

Nudity and Heat Waves

We’re in for a heat wave. Wildfires threaten our woods, with B.C. Interior areas contemplating evacuation alert notices. It’s a stress-inducing situation that has even lumber traders wondering how to keep cool. Uniting in nudity is suggested as a solution by some. We read of a Newcastle, UK based marketing company who once decided to have a naked Friday, “to boost team spirit and improve employee morale.” Business psychologist David Taylor called it “the most extreme technique” he’s ever used. After a week of counselling and office activities aimed at building courage, most of the co-workers agreed to strip down to work in the buff for a day in an effort to boost production (and probably for a chance to be on TV). The ‘naked event’ is said to have turned around the company’s fortunes.

We’re told that Canada’s first and largest legal, clothing-optional beach, Vancouver’s Wreck Beach, is so crowded this week, there’s a lot of jostling going on to find room to park your fanny pack. It’s reported that at Wreck Beach, named among the world’s top 10 nude beaches, the atmosphere is very stress free. “When you shed your clothes, you shed the stress. It also helps you keep cool”.  With lumber prices continuing to peel off this week, it may have some traders dedicated to serving supplier and customer needs from behind office desks wondering.

Family-friendly Porteau Cove Beach on Howe Sound – July 2018

Rooster Roast

A sell-out crowd which included numerous Westar alumni members was thoroughly entertained at the 38th Annual B.C. Wholesale Lumber Association Roast last evening in honour of 2018 Lumberman of the Year Rick Fortunaso, VP Sales & Marketing, Western Commodity and Specialty Lumber, Interfor. Before handing the mic to master roast host Jack Hetherington, BCWLA President Vince Bulic‘s opening remarks included presentation of an Inukshuk award to former president Chris Sainas, Dakeryn Industries for outstanding service and dedication to the association. The first and second roasters Pat Demens and Mike Thelen were very witty, ably warming up the crowd for much-hyped headliner Bill Rafter (2015 Lumberman of the Year). Rafter’s return to the ring, three years later to Vancouver’s Terminal City Club to turn the tables on the Rooster (see Rafters, Roosters, and Roasters), featured a hilarious recounting of a friendship spanning 50 years, enduring stories worthy of an original Netflix comedy series. After a classy rebuttal by Fortunaso in which he also recognized mentors throughout his career, Hetherington drew the festivities to a close noting its been said that “those who don’t believe in magic will never find it.” Another magical roast to be sure.

2018 NAWLA Vancouver Regional Meeting

Another sell-out crowd packed The Vancouver Club’s Grand Ballroom yesterday afternoon for the annual North American Wholesale Lumber Association (NAWLA) Regional Meeting. Vancouver’s Lumber Marketing Event of the Year also celebrated NAWLA’s 125th year “dedicated to growing and nurturing every aspect of the lumber industry.” NAWLA’s Executive Director Marc Saracco opened the meeting. Presentations by three featured speakers were all very well-received:

Jennifer Cover, Executive Director, WoodWorks USA – Wood Products Council
Russ Taylor, Managing Director – Forest Economic Advisors (FEA) Canada
Derek Orr, Business Development Manager, Carrier Lumber Ltd

Thanks to Tree Frog News for the following images posted with permission.

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Year-end Answers

As we approach year-end, you’ll recall 17 questions for 2017 we posed one year ago at Harderblog:

1. (See Question #1 from 2016)
Yes.

2. Will Trump really build a wall and have Mexico pay for it?
No. It’s reported the promised border wall amounts to eight prototypes sitting in a desert outside San Diego. Mexico hasn’t contributed a peso and no funding has been appropriated by Congress to advance the project beyond the testing phase.

3. Will the softwood lumber dispute have found a satisfactory resolution?
At the 2017 COFI Convention in Vancouver, David Emerson, B.C.’s Trade Envoy to the United States, described the ongoing softwood lumber dispute as “a mutating form of bacteria that has all but become antibiotic-resistant.” In the face of a dwindling resource and increasing demand for softwood worldwide, effective today the combined CVD/AD duty paid by most Canadian importers to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency will be 20.23%, calculated on the selling price.

4. Will anticipated countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber shipments to the U.S. be applied retroactively?
No. While the USDOC concluded in April that “critical circumstances” existed (justifying the charging of duties retroactively 90 days), by early December the USITC had announced a negative finding concerning critical circumstances.

5. Will Trump really pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement?
Yes.

6. In the face of “Fake News” and misinformation that poses distraction to sound decision formulation on many fronts, will lumber dealers lean more heavily than ever on trusted wholesale relationships to interpret market changes?
A poll of traders in Dakeryn’s office says “yes” to this question.

7. Will Trump really pull the U.S. out of the Iran Nuclear Deal?
No.

8. Will there be 100 million consumers shopping in augmented reality (AR) by the end of 2017?
Maybe not yet. However we’re told here “shoppers are beginning to give AR more attention, particularly when viewing function-driven, feature rich, high-consideration purchases such as furniture. Voice technology, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence are transforming the retail industry to make buying products quicker, easier and more enjoyable.”

9. Will a measure of sanity return to the Vancouver housing market?
No, although, as a major news story, rental-housing woes in Vancouver eclipsed angst over the climbing cost of homeownership. In 2017, it’s reported the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment listing in this city surpassed $2,000 per month.

10. Will the record number of homeless people identified in the City of Vancouver’s 2016 Homeless Count be broken again in 2017?
Yes. The record-breaking 2,138 homeless people counted in Vancouver this year is 291 more than the previous record of 1,847 homeless people counted in 2016. At 448, Aboriginal peoples are once again over-represented in the number of homeless people living in Vancouver.

11. Will tensions with China escalate over trade and Taiwan?
Trade issues loomed large on many fronts in 2017. The U.S. opting out of the Trans Pacific Partnership headlined trade-related news in Asia.

12. In light of increased hacking of connected products, will questions surrounding cybersecurity have become a make-or-break issue by the end of 2017?
Yes. In fact 2017 has been described as “the year of cybersecurity wake-up calls”. Recent examples show disturbing trends.

13. Is there any indication that by the end of 2017 a future of driverless transport trucks could promise enhanced just-in-time lumber deliveries?
See Corrections.

14. Will anybody care if the Vancouver Canucks fail to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Vancouver Canucks attendance figures are said to be the lowest since 2001.

15. Will BC Premier Christy Clark’s Liberal Party secure a fifth term in May?
No.

16. Will the global crises surrounding issues of displaced peoples/refugees have eased anywhere?
See: Why nothing will stop people from migrating.

17. Will general predictions forecasting a “bumpy ride” for 2017 come to fruition?
See: Are you day trading?

Gig Economy

Who knew? A recent study predicted that by 2020, 40 per cent of American workers would be independent contractors. We’re told the switch to gig work is first and foremost about employers moving to what is efficient for them. Here in Canada, 85 per cent of companies recently surveyed figured they will increasingly move to an “agile workforce” over the next few years. It’s part of a “gig economy”.

The “gig economy” is an environment in which temporary positions are common and organizations contract with independent workers for short-term engagements. For lumber types, this may conjure images of portable sawmills and seasonal workers in the woods. For some lumber traders, the concept smacks of impermanence and flies in the face of marketing effectiveness that pays homage to building longterm relationships. Even so, the gig economy finds shared identity in today’s world of transactional strategies and realpolitik.

 

~Tricks and Treats~

The coldest air of the season is flowing into Western Canada today, but a beautiful starry night’s in store for Vancouver this evening. At our house, pretty sure we’ve managed to turn our pumpkin inventory 8 times since Labour Day. A quick check of the 25 Horribly Inappropriate Halloween Costumes for Kids confirms Dorothy, Toto, and this Dad are all good to go. Happy Halloween!

Summer Haze

While smoke from B.C. wildfires hangs heavily over Interior and Coastal landscapes, so too a certain smoke obscures lumber market horizons searching for uncertain outcomes of softwood lumber negotiations.

When prices climb, lumber as a commodity finds extra supply available: mills re-open, add shifts, build more mills, areas that were too remote to haul timber from become more economical etc. But we interrupt this program with an unprecedented wildfire season. Fire danger has disrupted logging operations, stalled production at a number of mills, and fractured the transportation chain. As the contractor handling our recent home renovation liked to point out, “These costs are real.” Perhaps most alarming, reports this week tell us industry analysts are concerned the fires will compound B.C.’s dwindling timber supply. “Part of the tragedy we are dealing with is that fires are also burning through trees spared by the pine beetle outbreak, including young planted stands that were being counted on as timber supply over the next several decades,” said Phil Burton, professor of forest ecology and management at UBC here.

Traders meanwhile point to the upcoming expiration of the preliminary countervailing duty on Canadian softwood lumber shipments to the United States week of August 28th. Following the recent spike in lumber prices, many dealers appear to be anticipating a steep market correction when the 20% CVD is lifted. Will the bottom fall out? If only things were that simple. We’re told negotiations for a possible new SLA involving a cap on market share are progressing. While there is perceived motivation and hope for striking a deal before NAFTA negotiations are set to begin, some have now questioned that timeline, warning the U.S. Lumber Coalition’s “de-facto veto” on any proposed agreement might prolong the dispute, suggesting a quick resolution may not be congruent with their interests.
BREAKING: U.S. industry rejects Canada’s latest softwood-lumber proposal

Burrard Inlet today, and downtown Vancouver

High Trees’n Costs

West Coast woods are regular fodder for political discussions. Sometimes it involves negotiations with trading partners. Sometimes it involves social topics centering on high costs of real estate and allied concerns over homelessness. Here in Vancouver, the mayor’s aims of making this city the ‘greenest’ on the planet stirs an electorate with each new bike lane that is announced. So it is that a 24 hrs Vancouver columnist’s concern over costs involving the removal of one tree atop a condo tower caught a lumber trader’s attention, though it had nothing to do with NAFTA or SLA negotiations. See: Condo Tree

The cost of planting one tree (not on top of a condo building) is estimated at around $75. This means condo owners at Eugenia Place could effectively plant 7,300 trees for the price of the one they’ll be installing on their roof.

Lumber Trader’s Witch Hunt!

The Information Age has seemingly spawned increasingly polarized views on pretty much everything – exposing even close ties between supplier mills and wholesalers, some with ties to blogging. Fake news occasionally rears its ugly head. Reg Foot of Carrier Lumber is about to experience this when the B.C. Wholesale Lumber Association (BCWLA) honours him as The 2017 BCWLA Lumberman of the Year this week. We posed ten questions to Reg in advance of Thursday evening’s gala at the Terminal City Club in Vancouver:

1. How did you get into the business?
Started playing squash with Terry Kuzma (previous Carrier Lumber’s Woodlands Manager) about 20 years ago and he asked if I would ever be interested in a career change.. the rest is history.

2. When did you join Carrier Lumber and how long have you been Lumber Sales Manager?
Joined Carrier in September ’99 under the direction of Ron Gettling, Sales Manager and became sales manager in April, 2002.

3. Any mentors?
Absolutely.. Gord Wilkinson – my first sales manager when I was in newspaper advertising sales. Gord gave me my first break into sales and taught me some foundational sales techniques that I still practice today. Curt Garland, President of Lomak Bulk Carriers Corp – this was my second job in sales. Curt was instrumental in helping me transition from retail sales to an industrial sales environment. Ron Gettling, retired sales manager of Carrier Lumber. Ron taught me the finer points of mill lumber sales and its time-honoured traditions.

4. Others besides bloggers who have had a positive influence on your career?
My wife Sylvia, for supporting me throughout all the trials and tribulations of the lumber industry and for being my soundboard on the challenging days and helping me stay focused. Bill Kordyban, President of Carrier Lumber, for showing me resiliency, loyalty, and calmness in spite of some major market challenges.

5. What’s the biggest change you’ve seen in the industry?
Technology has really advanced the way we manufacture lumber, allowing us to be competitive in very challenging markets. As far as lumber sales, technology has changed the way we confirm orders, but thankfully it has not replaced the power of a customer-mill relationship. I hope that never happens.

6. What’s the most exotic destination you have shipped lumber to? 
Mongolia

7. How’s your squash game?
Limping along.. literally.

8. What do you fear most about being subject of the BCWLA Roast on Thursday evening?
No one will show up.

9. Can you describe why some consider the Roast merely to be a witch hunt, unlikely to expose positive details of your distinguished lumber career, that, with humility, you have heretofore been seeking to cover up, according to Carl Bernstein?
I am totally OK with a witch hunt. It is more entertaining to hear about a person’s failures than to listen to all the wonderful accomplishments. Just ask TMZ or the National Enquirer for further proof.

10. Please tell us why even an arms-length association you might enjoy with BCWLA distributors should not be a subject of investigation under terms of NAFTA, or, at very least, subject to renegotiation?
???? – next question.

Only in B.C..

When my daughter Evie’s kindergarten class lined up Friday for Sports Day races with teams named after B.C. resource exports, we knew they were into serious learning. The team from NAFTA failed to show, but in the end we learned the lumber team won at least a participation ribbon. After the cheese pizza everyone went home happy.