Here are 11 questions that Harderblog will be watching in 2018, in search of answers:
1. Will rhetoric of military strike pass the ‘tipping point’ into war with North Korea?
2. Will the Bitcoin excitement be fading, or prove to be a bubble?
3. Will the extreme weather patterns evidenced in 2017 be as pronounced in 2018?
4. Will Trump take steps to call a halt to the special prosecutor’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election?
5. Has integrity lost some of its lustre as a perceived prerequisite for leadership success?
6. As higher lumber prices effectively offset impact of duties, will Canadian major producers’ newly-hedged investments in U.S. production assuage any further concerns companies such as West Fraser and Canfor might have about the ongoing Softwood Lumber dispute?
7. Will Germany repeat as FIFA World Cup champions?
8. Will the powers that be acknowledge that the remanufacturing (value-added) segment of the Canadian forest sector is being unfairly penalized in the application of the AD/CVD?
9. Will softwood lumber be incorporated into NAFTA?
10. In view of the fractured supply chain, will lumber buyers abandon the “just-in-time” model in favour of securing coverage that satisfies longer-term projected needs?
11. Will broccoli, the least-trusted vegetable of 2017 among lumber traders and the general population, retain that notoriety in 2018, at the same time as the world watches broccoli’s favorability surge to number one in Scotland?
The sold out COFI 2017 Convention kicks off at 6:30pm this evening with an ice breaker in the stunning wood-infused architecture of the Vancouver Convention Centre. The largest gathering of the forest sector in Canada, we’re told over 600 delegates are registered this year, making this the biggest COFI Convention in ten years. The annual meeting brings attention and awareness to the significance of forestry to the economic well-being of the province. This year’s theme is Forestry for the Planet. Forest Products for the World.
The convention’s jam-packed itinerary ensures plenty to capture our attention through Friday. Tomorrow’s keynote speaker is renowned architect Michael Green who will present Increments of Change: from early tall wood buildings to a global movement. I’m also looking forward to the International Markets Review in the morning, and an afternoon CEO panel featuring Nick Arkle (Gorman Group), Duncan Davies (Interfor), Don Kayne (Canfor), and Ted Seraphim (West Fraser). On Friday, David Emerson, BC Trade Envoy to the United States, will discuss Canada’s Trade Negotiations Agenda with Kirsten Hillman, Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Policy & Negotiation, Global Affairs Canada.
There’s a ton of other interesting panel discussions before we hear from BC Premier Christy Clark, keynote speaker at Friday’s closing luncheon. Speaking of politics, it’s interesting today to look back in the blog archives at Premier Clark’s keynote at the COFI 2013 Convention, a fiery speech which seemingly sparked her campaign’s comeback, leading to a surprise victory in the provincial election the following month.
A good preview of the COFI 2017 Convention is available in the podcast below. It includes a number of hard-hitting caller questions for Susan Yurkovich, COFI President & CEO. My 23 takeaways from last year’s excellent COFI Convention in Kelowna are available here.
Elizabeth Browning’s poem The Autumn refers to this time of year “Where waving woods and waters wild Do hymn an autumn sound.” For many of us, this year’s first sounds of fall bring an unusual mix of seasonal notes:
Amid Maritime vacation memories not yet fully unpacked come reviews of first day of kindergarten for my four-year-old, a tumble and fall off the bus on day one of Grade One for my six-year-old, and newspaper reports suggesting the provincial government could seek exemptions from export duties for B.C. re-manufacturers that might come in a new Softwood Lumber Agreement with the U.S.
Ensuring access to timber for the value-added sector poses ongoing challenge. It is hoped the proposed exemption would provide incentive for big timber licensees to make more wood available to the value-added segment of the forest industry. Meanwhile, a report today from CIBC Capital Markets cites a source via Inside U.S. Trade who suggested SLA negotiations were closer at the 100-day period than they are now.
It seems the “chilling autumn winds” that Browning talked about could deliver more than a bloody lip that highlighted my daughter’s Grade One debut. Amid election-fueled talk of softwood negotiations, lumber traders are bracing for the October 12th standstill expiry to deliver more tears than exemptions.
Lunchtime! with Grandad – Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia (30 Aug 2016)
There’s always a chance that brilliance of cherry trees in blossom could upstage a Council of Forest Industries Convention scheduled for mid April in the Okanagan. However, the program itinerary ensures there’s plenty to capture our attention at the Kelowna meetings this weekend. COFI’s Convention website boasts that the largest gathering of the forest sector in Western Canada will attract 400-500 delegates “including industry CEOs, vice presidents and senior managers from continental North America and offshore, senior representatives from customers, suppliers, financial institutions, law firms, local government and chambers of commerce, Federal and Provincial Ministers, MPs, MLAs and senior civil servants, along with Premier Christy Clark… and me.
The Convention though, will see and hear the Premier, featured as closing keynote speaker. The annual gathering brings attention and awareness to the significance of forestry to the economic well-being of the province. My 25 takeaways from last year’s convention are available here.
COFI points out that “with 140 B.C. communities dependent on forestry, the 300 wood products manufacturing facilities in B.C. provide one out of every four manufacturing jobs in the province and account for 35 per cent of all commodity exports from B.C. COFI CEO and President, Susan Yurkovich, featured speaker at the upcoming NAWLA Regional Meeting in Vancouver April 21st, reminded us that “the industry directly and indirectly employs about 145,000 across the province, from Fort St. John to Vancouver, with one in 16 jobs in B.C. associated with forestry.” All of this surely representative of an industry in full bloom.
Lake Okanagan, Kelowna (April 9, 2016)
Aims of finding a fair balance between the tourism industry and forest industry is important to all. During the week, we make our living by marketing quality wood products produced from the forest. We facilitate shipment of those products around the world. On the weekends, we also enjoy being tourists in our own province with getaways into B.C.’s coastal and Interior woods. The unmatched natural beauty of our forest attracts visitors from around the globe. They’re expected to visit in record numbers this season. Of course, value of the loonie helps. Billions of dollars are at stake in both tourism and forest-related industries in B.C.
I was reminded of the challenges involved in balancing the interests of both industries by this article in The Vancouver Sun describing concerns over a clearcut visible from the Hope Slide Viewpoint. A Council of Tourism Association (COTA) report in 2007 entitled A Tourism industry strategy for forests provided recommendations for improving the identification, management, and safeguarding of scenic areas significant to tourism – particularly in the face of salvage logging beetle-killed wood. This 2011 report by the Association of B.C. Forest Professionals included recommendations that Visual Quality Objectives (VQO) should be a focus for nature-based tourism. Professional Foresters agree that “difficult trade-offs exist when considering the right balance following Mountain Pine Beetle damage. Increasing or reducing one value at the expense of other values requires informed discussion and debate… Public consultation in areas of high sensitivity is required to prevent undesirable outcomes.”
Gavin Dew works with the Stakeholder Engagement and Communications group on Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Expansion Project, a proposed $5.4B twinning of an existing pipeline between Strathcona County, Alberta and Burnaby, British Columbia. Since early 2012, he has worked to build support for the project among civil society and the business community. Prior to beginning his work with Trans Mountain, Gavin completed an at MBA at the University of Oxford, where he wrote a thesis on “social license to operate,” focusing on using public opinion research to understand how trust and legitimacy influence acceptance or rejection of major projects. Before his MBA, Gavin was a senior consultant at a leading communications agency known for its work on sustainability and environmental issues. He also has an extensive background in municipal, provincial, federal, and international election and issue campaigns.
Attendance for Thursday’s NAWLA Vancouver Regional Meeting is approaching 200. Event details and on-line registration is available here.
Kinder Morgan Canada is proposing a $5.4B expansion of its current 1,150 kilometre Trans Mountain pipeline between Strathcona County, Alberta and Burnaby, British Columbia.
The proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project, if approved, would create a twinned pipeline increasing the nominal capacity of the system from approximately 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 barrels per day.
Trans Mountain plans to spend $5.4 billion to construct the line and associated facilities, and a further $2.4 billion to operate it for the first 20 years.
The project includes 994 km of new pipeline, with twinning to take place within the existing right-of-way corridor where practical. Also included are 12 new pump stations and expansion of existing pump stations, additional storage capacity at existing storage terminals in Burnaby, Sumas and Edmonton, and expansion of Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby.
The Project will create new jobs in the short and long term, job-related training opportunities, and increases in taxes collected through all three levels of government.
Senior Specialist, Stakeholder Engagement and Communications
Tran Mountain Expansion Project