Aspirational Lumber Labors

A social media article at Quartz this week categorizes blogging as aspirational labor. Social media researcher and author Brooke Erin Duffy describes ‘aspirational labor’ as “a forward-looking and entrepreneurial enactment of creativity.. seen as something that will provide a return on investment.” Broadly speaking then, we might comfortably frame our work trading lumber under the umbrella of ‘aspirational labor’.

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Influencer Marketing?

The degree to which intermittent posts at Harderblog are “influencers” on a road to personal riches, so far at least, is undetermined. We mostly share questions and topics gauged to hold common interest with our 135 followers to date – valued subscribers who include Mom and Dad, two uncles, and my cousin Dean. According to “influencer marketing” experts, a blogger needs at least 1,000 followers to be considered a “super blogger” or “super influencer”. At this lofty subscriber level, we’re told advertisers come calling. It’s much cheaper for a brand to reach out to a super blogger’s “organic following” than it is to place an ad in a magazine or on TV. The article at Quartz cautions that there are risks in abandoning your blog for a week, or “you see a huge dip in your followers”.  It’s a risk we accept as a part-time blogger, and full-time lumber trader.

 

Subscribers? Brother Matt, Nephews Cal and Seb, Paul – Quilchena on the Lake (4 Aug 2017)

 

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Musical Refreshment

Project Funkify continues. Our latest:

Summer Haze

While smoke from B.C. wildfires hangs heavily over Interior and Coastal landscapes, so too a certain smoke obscures lumber market horizons searching for uncertain outcomes of softwood lumber negotiations.

When prices climb, lumber as a commodity finds extra supply available: mills re-open, add shifts, build more mills, areas that were too remote to haul timber from become more economical etc. But we interrupt this program with an unprecedented wildfire season. Fire danger has disrupted logging operations, stalled production at a number of mills, and fractured the transportation chain. As the contractor handling our recent home renovation liked to point out, “These costs are real.” Perhaps most alarming, reports this week tell us industry analysts are concerned the fires will compound B.C.’s dwindling timber supply. “Part of the tragedy we are dealing with is that fires are also burning through trees spared by the pine beetle outbreak, including young planted stands that were being counted on as timber supply over the next several decades,” said Phil Burton, professor of forest ecology and management at UBC here.

Traders meanwhile point to the upcoming expiration of the preliminary countervailing duty on Canadian softwood lumber shipments to the United States week of August 28th. Following the recent spike in lumber prices, many dealers appear to be anticipating a steep market correction when the 20% CVD is lifted. Will the bottom fall out? If only things were that simple. We’re told negotiations for a possible new SLA involving a cap on market share are progressing. While there is perceived motivation and hope for striking a deal before NAFTA negotiations are set to begin, some have now questioned that timeline, warning the U.S. Lumber Coalition’s “de-facto veto” on any proposed agreement might prolong the dispute, suggesting a quick resolution may not be congruent with their interests.
BREAKING: U.S. industry rejects Canada’s latest softwood-lumber proposal

Burrard Inlet today, and downtown Vancouver