Still Summer..

Its been said that western lumber traders who go to the Prairies for a late summer vacation travel against the grain. For this trader, it’s the generous hospitality of the Canadian Maritimes that beckons before summer expires. I’m told I’ll know I’m in the Maritimes when someone in a building supplies store offers assistance and they don’t even work there. I’m looking forward to boarding the red-eye out of Vancouver tonight, and getting into the vacation spirit with extended family in New Brunswick, where they say a vacation means going anywhere south of Saint John for the weekend.

Summer Surprise

A number of forest analysts were projecting that while we are in midst of a long period of strengthening lumber markets, prices could fade this summer due to increasing production on both sides of the border. The 20% jump year-over-year in U.S. housing starts experienced in Q1 was widely explained by the mild winter compared to 2015. While no one projects another 20% jump in starts this year, homebuilding activity continues to grind forward. Demand for lumber has been surprisingly strong through mid-August. Notably, the Framing Lumber Composite Price is up almost 20% since the Softwood Lumber Agreement expired last October.

The positive correlation illustrated below suggests the “surge” in cross-border shipments during the standstill period to date is largely demand-driven. The chart plots B.C. softwood exports to the U.S. per BCStats vs. the Framing Lumber Composite Price by month per Random Lengths (most recent data for softwood shipments is June; the Composite Price had climbed to $369 by the end of last week).

Export Vol vs Composite Price (2)

UBC Brock Commons

Updated August 10, 2016: Video of the final panel, flown into place August 9, 2016.

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The following images offer beautiful hi-res peeks at construction of the towering 18-storey student residence at UBC. One of the tallest wood buildings in the world, Brock Commons will house 404 students in 272 studios and 33 four-bedroom units, and feature study and social gathering spaces. The images are posted with permission from Leda Chahim, Government Affairs Director, Forterra.

I look forward to learning more about the UBC Brock Commons project, mass timber solutions, and new opportunities for dimension lumber upon scheduled visit in September with Oscar Faoro, wood-WORKS Project Leader, Tall Wood Structures Initiative, at the Tall Wood Building Education Centre.