$400 Lumber? maybe next year..

In response to questions surrounding the latest underwhelming US housing market data this morning, Mark Kennedy at CIBC World Markets told BNNpent up demand is staying pent up at the moment.” But while pointing to the severe winter in much of the U.S., Mark also suggested it’s too early for the recent disappointing U.S. housing market data to be considered an established new trend.

Unlike some financial institutions, CIBC’s 1.130 million forecast for U.S. housing starts this year has so far not been recalibrated. However Mark did confirm lower lumber price expectations today; the Q2 estimate is down from US$420/M to US$350/M, and the overall 2014 average price estimate has been adjusted to US$367/M (from US$400).

Interestingly, these lower price expectations have not tempered bullish analyst outlooks for forestry stocks – West Fraser and Interfor in particular. A link to this morning’s full BNN interview is available here.

Turtle Derby

Turtle – during kids visit to Dr. Sun Yat-Sen Classical Chinese Garden yesterday, Vancouver – Photo Credit: Krys

“The most frustrating thing for a lot of investors is just how gradual the U.S. housing recovery continues to be..”
– Mark Kennedy, April 23

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