Tax Trigger?

The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price has been above $355 for seven consecutive months. After oscillating within a $5 range ($385-390) for the better part of the last two months, the composite has fallen in recent weeks to $365 today.

One month ago, we asked “Is the market ‘loading the slingshot’ for a significant spring rally or, is the stage being set for a significant correction?” While few could have foreseen the offshore shipment breakdown resulting from a Port Metro Vancouver truckers strike (Ted Seraphim, President & CEO of West Fraser called it “embarrassing” at the COFI Conference last week), it’s worth revisiting the arguments in support of either scenario here

There will be no export charge through May. Jumping to June, the four Composite Price dates for the Prevailing Monthly Price calculation begin next Friday (4/18, 4/25, 5/2, 5/9). Might the Prevailing Monthly Price dip below $355, triggering a 5% export tax on Canadian softwood lumber shipments to the United States? Traders will be closely monitoring the day-to-day changing landscape.

“It’s a market driven by logistics,” said one mill salesman.
– Random Lengths Midweek Report, April 9

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