On a morning when many are digging out yet again from a snowstorm sweeping much of the Midwest and Northeast, we’re told here that once the U.S. finally does thaw out from this unusually long and harsh winter, some “spring economic surprises” could be in store. Count Andrew Grantham, CIBC World Markets among those economists anticipating a strong rebound from the icy impasse. “While we’re far from the first to blame the weather for Q1 weakness, our results point to a much more decisive rebound than the market has priced in,” he said in a note to clients. “As more seasonal temperatures return in Q2, and the economy catches up with postponed activity, the data flow will strengthen and second quarter growth could easily surpass consensus expectations.”
Some traders have described lumber markets this winter as “aggressively sideways”. This characterization of market activity brings increased focus to trading at wholesale distribution level, where the wholesalers’ function of interpreting market changes finds added value in prevailing ‘choppy’ conditions. Of note, when the first snowstorm arrived in early October, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price was $383. Over five months later, in the Midweek Report dated March 11, the composite stands at $388.
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