U.S. Housing – The BIG Picture

On a day when we learned that the February NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index experienced the steepest decline in the 30 year history of the index, it might be timely to re-visit the big picture. While we’re told this drop in Builders Sentiment can be attributed in large part to extreme winter weather, economists from Applied Global Macro Research (AGMR) tell us the snow won’t put a chill on what could be the hottest economy since the late 1990s.

At a time when sluggish lumber sales might be prompting concern among some traders, this “unusually rigorous and prescient” trio of economists from AGMR only adds more depth to the bullish outlook for spring. We’re told “just as the bursting bubble in housing helped trigger the Great Recession, the prolonged sickness in this sector, which has persisted well past the recession’s end, is now poised to give way to an acceleration in the recovery that has been under way for the past few years.” The full story is available here, at Barron’s Magazine.
(HT: Mark Kennedy, CIBC)

“The price collapse that began in 2007 lasted through early 2012. So low did prices go that the inflation-adjusted median price as of December 2013 is still about in line with where it was in late 2001. The result is that house prices can easily rise 5% to 10% faster than the rate of inflation through this year and the next, and still not catch up with the trend growth rate of 2% to 2.5%.”
-The Case for 4% Growth – Barron’s (2-15-14)

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