Who’s in?

A report in the Financial Post today refers to the Toronto-based Tricon Capital Group Inc. here. We learned back in November that Tricon is “All in.. on the U.S. Housing Recovery“.

Of greater interest in the article however, is a quote from David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., regarding the U.S. housing market: “We’re in the midst of one of the worst winters since the records began and even with that, the data are coming decently to say the least. In particular, housing refuses to buckle..”

Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explains here that “a useful gauge of the overall state of the housing recovery – and potential for growth – is the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI). The number of markets reaching and exceeding their last normal level of economic and housing activity continues to advance, albeit slowly. The LMI contains 56 markets in which the index is at or above one, which means the last 12 months’ average of single-family housing permits, home prices and employment levels are at or above their last period of normalcy. The national index for January remained at .86 meaning that the U.S. market is only 86% of the way back to normal as evaluated on the basis of prices, jobs and building.”

One mill sales manager in the the B.C. Interior this week described the lumber market at present as “aggressively sideways”.  Which raises the question: If there is underlying support for lumber prices today, in the midst of severe winter weather across much of this continent, what will spring bring? I invite your response to the poll question below:

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