On this New Year’s Eve, here are the Top Ten Questions that Harderblog will be watching in 2014, in search of answers:
- Is there a real shortage of fibre supply looming?
- Is B.C. doing enough to restore/replant forest that was degraded/destroyed by the Mountain Pine Beetle?
- Is the northern pipeline a relevant issue of interest to forestry in this province?
- Will Canadian Softwood lumber shipments to the United States be ‘duty-free’ for all twelve months in 2014?
- Is there a housing bubble developing in Canada?
- Will U.S. housing starts reach 1.25 million in 2014?
- What does the emerging Super Cycle mean to lumber distributors in North America?
- Who benefits from lumber and log exports to China?
- Is the gap likely to narrow between Lulongo’s income in 2014 and the average lumber trader’s income?
- Will West Fraser and Canfor ship enough wood to China in the New Year to renovate the Great Wall?
………. I invite your comments, suggestions, and input!
~Sawdust~
Vancouver’s Orpheum Theatre holds 2,780 people. This blog was viewed over 14,000 times in 2013. If it were a concert at The Orpheum, it would take about five sold-out performances for that many people to see it; the audiences would include people from 103 different countries. In 2013, there were 177 new posts, growing the total archive of Harderblog to 574 posts. There were 326 images uploaded, taking up a total of 719 MB. That’s about six pictures per week. The busiest day of the year was June 14th with 334 views. The most popular post that day was 33rd Annual BCWLA Lumberman of the Year Roast. Happy New Year!
(Hat Tip: WordPress.com)
Harder.Blog 
Paul,
I always enjoy reading your blog. The top ten questions for 2014 are very appropriate. The many years I have survived the ups and downs has made it difficult to adjust to our “new norms”. I personally think 2014 will be a better year than we’ve had for a while. We still have long way to go to make a yester-year but we should all do better.
I wish you and all of us a prosperous new year.
Bob
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I look forward to seeing how all the answers to the questions come out!
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Great questions. Number 2 is high on my own watch list. Cheers
Dan Bouchard
Sent from Samsung Mobile
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Appreciate your feedback Bob. Happy New Year!
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Hi Paul,
Define Super Cycle please.
Thanks,
Marc
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Hi Marc,
The Lumber Super Cycle was coined by Daryl Swetlishoff in his “Peak Lumber Theory and Super Cycle Thesis” published March 29, 2010.
A ranked analyst covering Paper and Forest sector equities at Raymond James, Swetlishoff was the first to theorize that a combination of factors (namely a depleted fibre supply from the Mountain Pine Beetle, growing demand from China, and the eventual U.S. housing market recovery) was on a collision course that would contribute to a long term trend of “higher highs and higher lows” in lumber prices. Swetlishoff’s complex forecasting models are most interesting; when he spoke at the NAWLA Regional Meeting here in Vancouver in 2011, his model projected that U.S. housing starts would return to “a healthy average” of 1.4 million by 2014.
The lumber market meltdown last spring certainly tempered talk amongst lumber traders of the coming Super Cycle (see following link for perspective http://harderblog.com/2013/06/18/bottom-of-the-third/
Swetlishoff’s rock star status is secure however; forestry stocks have so far surged 80% in 2012 and 50% in 2013.
Paul
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