Uncertainty as a byword in seasonal markets is not a surprising description of lumber pricing. And while it’s been said “they don’t ring a bell at the bottom”, The Wall Street Journal has called a market peak. In fact, the reporter goes further: “Lumber prices are getting chopped after notching seven-month highs, as the market hunkers down for a seasonal decline in construction and expected higher production next year.”

An easing in activity over winter is certainly anticipated by most traders. However, any declaration that significantly lower prices have already arrived would likely be considered premature. The article does acknowledge the perception that a pattern of discounted offshore pricing on surplus mill production could lend support to North American winter trading levels.