Builder Confidence and Housing Starts


I’ve “reblogged” this post from the National Association of Home Builders which asks why the U.S. Housing Market Index has been increasing at a significantly faster pace than starts recently. Money quote: “single-family starts have increased 67% from the trough and are expected to double from their low point by mid-2014. ”   – Paul

Eye on Housing

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is at its highest level in almost 8 years. The July level of 57 was up 6 points from June and 16 points from April. The index has been on a fairly steady rise since wandering in the teens through almost all of 2011. In percentage terms, the HMI has more than doubled between April 2012 and June 2013.

Single-family housing starts, on the other hand, have risen but not as substantially. In the same 14 month period, single-family starts are up 17% from April 2012 to 2013. During that period, starts were as high as 29% above their April 2012 level.

The HMI is designed to track current and future single-family housing starts. At least theoretically, the same group who responds to the HMI questionnaire is the group that actually builds the homes tracked in the starts survey conducted by…

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