Out of Touch?

There appears to be a severe disconnect between projections of long term scarcity for lumber supply and present realities in the cash market. Widespread buy-in to a Super Cycle mentality of supply/demand balance at the same time has the market bewildered by what could be described as a bloodbath in many current lumber prices. Western SPF stud prices are reportedly off over $100 within the past three weeks. Media reports posted just this morning suggesting that “the gap between lumber supply and demand has fueled an ongoing price escalation” might fairly be characterized as out of date, if not out of touch: Lumber Supplies Remain T…Chain – ProSales Online

“Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down”
– Wall Street adage

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