The Turning Point

Mark Kennedy, CIBC World Markets, sent a link to the two year lumber futures chart shown at bottom (click for larger size, image source here).
He notes that October, 2011 represents “the turning point” – the month U.S. homebuilders began their run. Adds Mark, “What I like best about this chart is that since Oct 2011, while we have seen ups and downs in the lumber futures price, each pullback has been a higher low, for fourteen consecutive months now. Not sure if there is any technical significance to this, but to me it reflects the improving fundamentals of this market.”

In our chat this morning, Mark also pointed to a very interesting article here at The author examines the business model of American Homes 4 Rent. The story of institutional investors buying up distressed U.S. properties might be considered old news, but this billionaire’s “portfolio” includes plenty of brand new homes bought direct from homebuilders.

“A lot of the distressed properties have been bought up … that whole shadow inventory is starting to fade fast. It leaves these investors aiming at … alternative ways to get product that still meets, or is close to meeting, their profile.” – Jack Rostetter, H&H Homes

Feb 26 futures chart 3

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