Rocket to the moon?

A story at The Prince George Citizen features some bold predictions from Keta Kosman, editor of Madison’s Lumber Reporter:
“The game of trying to out-wait producers for prices to drop is over. The game of actually getting their [big-volume lumber buyers] hands on supply is afoot. I expect a very upside market until at least mid-summer… The supply-demand balance is so tight that one event can mess everything up. That event is going to be spring, and we are on a rocket to the moon starting last week… One thing we can be sure of is the days of less than $350 are over.”

The outlook from Wayne Guthrie, VP Sales & Marketing at Canfor, is more tempered. He adds some interesting insight regarding expectations that sawmill production will ramp up: “Now, there just isn’t the infrastructure right now, so we have a much tighter market supply than usual. I don’t think you can point to one mill, but you can point to many mills closed on the continent over the past several years. They are not there, and so the mills that remain can’t respond to the supply equation in enough numbers to shift the processing equation. That is the unfortunate side of the economics of the industry, but for those that remained it bodes well because the higher prices will likely be sustainable.”
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